The Orioles have opened Spring Training in sunny Sarasota, Florida this weekend and the fans have responded with a resounding yawn. It is hard to blame them, the Orioles have not done much this offseason to generate a lot of positive buzz going into the 2012 campaign. Despite the thrilling end to the Orioles 2011 season fans were subject to the following: An embarrassing debacle of a GM search; international sanctions; injuries to Nick Markakis, Jim Johnson and now Zach Britton and messy useless PR brushfire on the internet’s biggest Orioles fansite.
Instead of “making 162 count” the Orioles enter Spring Training with far more questions than answers. Let’s cover the biggest three.
Question 1: How does the rotation shake out without Jeremy Guthrie.
Fan favorite Jeremy Guthrie was traded rather surprisingly in January to the Colorado Rockies for Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom. Hammel is basically a slightly younger version of Guthrie and Lindstom is an okay bullpen arm but all in all the move seemed like a lateral move. The real question is this; without Guthrie what does the starting rotation look like? Guthrie brought a solid arm and 200 IP to a young rotation that is filled with uncertainty. GM Dan Duquette went across the Pacific to find Wei-yen Chen and Tsuyoshi Wada and both offer intriguing possibilities in the starting five. Chen himself was guaranteed to make the rotation coming over here, but many felt Wada would find his way to the bullpen. Now with Guthrie gone it seems wide open.
Then there are the “cavalry” pitchers in Britton, Arrieta and Matusz. Matusz’ nightmarish 2011 has tarnished expectations surrounding him and many fans are questioning whether or not he will even start the season in Baltimore. Britton had a quietly decent rookie year, save for a couple absolutely disastrous starts around the All Star Break, likewise Arrieta was solid before being sidelined with bone spurs in his elbow. Those three young pitchers really hold the key to 2012, if they pitch to the level which they were expected then the Orioles may actually make some noise in the AL East; if not, then we will probably be seeing an improved team but still one that is very far from legitimate contention.
Tommy Hunter is likely your opening day starter. Don’t put too much stock into that statement even if it does come true. But for those that are worried by such things that is how I see it standing on President’s Day.
Question 2: Will Mark Reynolds defense improve to allow him to stay on third base?
Mark Reynolds was exactly what everyone expected last year. He struck out a ton, but also led the team in homers, walks, OBP and RBI. What was unexpected was the butchery on third base. Simply put Reynolds had one of the worst defensive seasons I have ever witnessed at the major league level. Fangraphs has Reynolds defense at -28.2 WAR for 2011. I really never thought a number like that was possible. Reynolds seemed to handle first base much better, though still not ideal. Apparently manager Showalter and the Orioles want to give Reynolds another chance at third and he has been working very hard to improve his defense for 2012. According to reports from camp Reynolds has seemingly dropped about 20 lbs. of weight and that actually makes me a little nervous.
Reynolds needs to hit homers, that is what the Orioles need him to do. Even if he becomes a league average thirdbaseman if he isn’t hitting 35+ homers every year than his value to the team takes a big hit.
Question 3: Will Nick Markakis return to his pre-contract self?
Since signing his contract extension Makrkakis has fallen off. his power has dwindled, his on-base percentage has dropped and he seems unlike the player that brought so much promise with him when he burst onto the scene. It was revealed in the fall that Markakis was struggling with an abdominal muscle tear for much of the end of the 2011 season. Markakis underwent surgery this winter to correct the issue and he is on track to be ready for opening day. Markakis, like Adam Jones and Matt Wieters, is supposed to be a superstar but as it usually goes for the Orioles he has been solid, but unremarkable.
Markakis, Jones and Wieters all have immense talent and more than enough ability. Like Britton, Matusz and Arrieta on the pitching staff if those three players can play closer to their expectations dictate then the Orioles could surpirse a lot of people.
It was an unremarkable winter and Spring Training is starting off with an equally unremarkable buzz. It is always good to know that somewhere in the country professional baseball is being played. The Orioles will have six weeks to answer some of the many questions surrounding this team but right now even the warmth of Florida sun is having trouble supplying the requisite hope that comes with the start of a new baseball season. But who knows, in a sports-year that has brought us Tim Tebow and Lin-sanity perhaps the Orioles can be the next unlikely heroes of the sports world.
They have zero chance to many, they have zero talent to some – Just call them the ZerO’s. Perhaps it will be their turn to shock the world, they better because that is what it will take.
