With the Orioles just one week away from the start of the 2011 campaign there are still some lingering questions. Reimold/ Pie is still floating around; I frankly don’t see how Jake Fox doesn’t make this team right now but the biggest questions surround the rotation.
We have all heard about players being “quietly” good, well I hate to say it but the young starters have taken a turn and they have been “quietly” bad as of late in ST. Matusz got shelled in his last outing; Arrieta was wildly inconsistent; Duchscherer will start the year on the DL and Bergesen was drilled on his pitching arm and had to leave one of his last starts early.
Guthrie has looked alright in his three starts but he has only pitched nine innings this spring so it is a bit hard to grade him so far. Tillman has looked solid in his 12.2 innings this spring but the stand-out player is Britton. The Orioles top prospect has surrendered only one run in his 14 innings of work this spring. But Britton is not likely to make the team out of ST due to contract stuff and a desire to give him a bit more seasoning in AAA.
So the rotation is not looking as confident as it did in the beginning. Manager Buck Showalter has set the rotation, kinda. Guthrie will get the opener in Tampa followed by Brian Matusz after that the only sure thing is Jake Arrieta will get the home opener in Baltimore against the Detroit Tigers. The “number 3” and “number 5” starters are still in question and it seems to be an open competition between Bergesen, Tillman, Britton and Duchscherer.
Showalter is not in any hurry to set that fifth starter slot as one will not be needed until later in April. So who will get that third spot? It most certainly will not be Duchscherer although he is still in the hunt for the fifth spot if he can get healthy so that leaves Tillman, Britton and Bergesen.
I thought going into this spring that Bergesen’s role was all but locked in but his inconsistent play has potentially knocked him out of the rotation and back to the minors, which would have to be disastrous for the young pitcher. So we come back to the Tillman/ Britton discussion. Tillman has been alright this spring pitching to a 3.50 ERA striking out seven and walking five in his innings but he still seems to be haunted by inconsistent control issues that held him back last year. Britton has been a shining star for the pitchers this year, but there are no indications that the plans for Britton have changed as a result of his spring performance.
So Tillman or Bergesen? If past success and consistency means anything you go with Bergy. In between freak injuries and recovery from freak injuries Bergy has fallen somewhere between “serviceable” to “very very good” he is an ideal middle-of-the-rotation type guy, he won’t get the stardom or media attention of Matusz or a Tillman (both top prospects that have considerable top-of-the-rotation talent) rather he is the middleman workhorse that extends winning streaks and stops losing streaks.
Tillman has electric stuff and many thought he was the real gem of the Bedard trade and may become more valuable than Adam Jones in time. But Tillman’s short ML career, so far only 23 starts in the majors, has been less than stellar. Bottom line he is walking too many people, last year his SO/BB ratio was 1. For every K a walk. That is not good, that simply can’t happen. However, Tillman definitely has the talent to be a major league starter, there is little doubt of that, he will be pitching in Baltimore this year the only question is when. I don’t think Tillman is quite ready yet stick with Bergy.
You would hope we would be having a debate over three guys who were all setting the world on fire instead of them all battling respective demons, but here we are. One week out and still some lingering questions.
In other news:
Adam Jones is awesome. There I said it. We have all seen the video interview on the Sun, and I think it is awesome. Nothing Jones said was offensive, or wrong. I hate Yankee fans and Sox fans as well. Basically he said that real fans are loyal, real fans don’t flip flop allegiances. At least that is what I took from it. As Anthony said I think we are all a bit shocked by the candor because we are so used to hearing nothing but the stock cliche responses, I for one like the candor of players like Jones. Between he and Showalter popping off in the media on various issues the Orioles seem to be coming out of spring with a little swagger. Actual swagger! Some will say, “we haven’t won anything in 13 years…” blah, blah, blah. That being the case we need it even more. The mountain we need to climb is so high, it is simply something that can not be done without bravado, machismo and beards. In all seriousness I want the Orioles to come out of spring training talking and strutting. If we are going to stop being doormats, we need to stop acting like doormats.
