Dan Duquette has a plan. It is not the plan that many wanted. Prince Fielder is not part of that plan, neither is trading Adam Jones or Jeremy Guthrie. No, but Duquette has a plan.
And it is very risky.
Looking at the moves Duquette has made this offseason I think it is pretty clear, he still believes in the talent that is on this roster. I made this comment at fanfest: "If Brian Matusz [et al] played at the level we expected them to play, then MacPhail would still be here…”; etc etc. I only now realize how true those words are, because I think the O’s GM feels the same way.
Duquette has spent all offseason augmenting a bench, flooding the minor leagues and plumbing the depths of South Korea and even New Zealand for fresh talent. The biggest acquisition so far, the Taiwanese starter Chen Wei-Yin, is seen by many to be little more than a middle of the rotation starter. Duquette obviously believes that the Orioles true elite pitcher is currently on the roster in the form of either Matusz, Zack Britton or Jake Arrieta.
Duquette isn’t dumb, he knows what the team’s problems were last year, pitching and defense. If you believe, as I think he does, that those three pitchers mentioned above still have the elite-level talent that was advertised in the Winter of 2011 then you don’t need ot break the bank on a guy like CJ Wilson. Instead, what did Duquette do? He filled in the support roles around them. He went out and hired Rick Peterson to act as some kind of system-wide pitching guru; he hired Brady Anderson to be his apparent second-in-command bringing all of the pitchers to focus on strength, conditioning and endurance. Duquette has brought in a seemingly endless stream of middling starter/ reliever type pitchers to provide support and hopefully cobble together a stronger bullpen than last year.
The defense was awful last year. What does Duquette do? Brings in defensive players in Matt Antonelli, Jai Miller, Endy Chavez and Taylor Teagarden. On-base percentage was among the lowest in the league? Signs Wilson Betemit in an almost Beane-like move to be a primary DH with a high OBP. The power on this team will be coming from Reynolds, Jones, Matt Weiters and JJ Hardy. Chris Davis and Nolan Reimold both have a lot of power potential and both will get their chances as they will be the likely starters at first base and left field going into the season.
Duquette said today: “quot;We will win more games than we lose this year…” I understand that no self-respecting GM will ever come out and give a completely fair assessment of even the worst teams, but I get the sense that he is a true believer. Dave Trembley called this group of young pitchers "the cavalry." MacPhail put all of his hopes on the cavalry and it collapsed. I think the fatal flaw that Duquette has attempted to correct here is simple – MacPhail neglected to surround his young arms with an adequate amount of depth. Duquette has seemed to do all he could to correct that error, especially on the pitching end of the equation.
Whether or not Duquette’s faith is misplaced can not yet be determined. If Dan Duquette is right and this Orioles team somehow does win more games than it loses in 2012 then a lot of detractors will have to eat a lot of crow. Duquette could be wrong, and he would have to answer for that sooner rather than later. Duquette has a very sneaky plan for 2012, it is very risky. Another risky move sits in the potential aqcuisition of Cuban outfielder Yeonis Cespedes. Three months ago Cespedes was going to be the multi-million dollar golden child, one Domican-League series later and there are suddenly a lot of questions surrounding Cespedes repoted abilities. Cespedes is actually a lot like the Orioles over the last two years. Though at one point to be full of young talent; then they fell flat on their face; now there is nothing left but diminished expectations and questions. The talent that everyone thought was there should still be there, but how long do you stick with the promise of success before you start demanding results? Apparently, Dan Duquette plans to stick with the talent on the O’s roster at least for one more half a season as Spring Training approaches I think the Orioles roster is fairly set. Unless of course Duquette decides to make one more risky move on an enigmatic Cuban outfielder.
