The Buck Bump, is it real – how long will it last? Before last night’s win the Orioles lost two series in a row, two winnable series and Orioles fans everywhere began to consider the notion that the Buck Bump had passed and the Orioles would fall back into their old Pre-Buck (or P.B.) ways. Orioles fans can be a panicky bunch; after all 13 years of losing baseball will do that to you. Until the World Series parade starts on Pratt Street Orioles fans exist in a perpetual state of “waiting for the other shoe to drop”. Let me be the first to say this O’s fans: DON’T PANIC (notice the large friendly letters) the Orioles are still experiencing the influence of Buck Showalter and the bump is still in effect.
Despite dropping back-to-back series to the Rays and Mariners the key thing to remember is the Orioles have been playing very solid baseball. The Rays are simply a better team right now and the Mariners – well – frankly the M’s got a little lucky. It is not everyday that Matt Tuiasosopo pretty much wins a game single-handed. I still don’t know how he caught Matt Wieters’ double the other night and I bet he doesn’t either. That is baseball even when you are playing well sometimes you just don’t get the breaks.
I stated a while ago here in this very blog that the real test of this team under Buck’s tenure would be how they react to their first bit of trouble and last night I think they showed us. Brian Matusz was masterful against a very tough Rangers lineup and the Birds made easy work of the Texas Club shutting them out 4-0. It was just an excellent performance from everyone involved. The Orioles are simply playing better ball and that usually translates into more wins. Every once and awhile good ballclubs lose games they have no business losing, like the third game of the Mariners series, but so long as the play remains consistent there good teams tend to win more games than they lose.
Sitting here in the pressbox tonight, be sure to follow me on twitter (@hampden42) for live commentary and Q+A. this will be my third game of the season sitting with the rest of the press. I have to say everyone has been so very nice and welcoming to li’l ol’ me. The Orioles are really going out of their way to open this experience up to the electronic media and I am thankful for the opportunity.
other thoughts:
– A discussion from earlier today: Apparently fangraphs has updated their latest defensive stats and there is a bit of a head-scratcher. Apparently Nick Markakis UZR (ultimate zone rating) is among the WORST for right fielders in the AL. Now that does not make much sense to me. According to this metric, taken at face value, Nick Markakis is in the same class as Bobby Abreu and Adam Dunn. Now, any stat that puts Markakis in the same solar system as Dunn defensively must have something wrong with it in my mind. Thus the problem when quantifying defense as much as you try to rationalize it still seems to end up being rather subjective. I always take “advanced” defensive metrics with a grain of salt because the twisted calculus that is involved seems to come from the land of wind and ghosts but as I understand it UZR is based largely on RngR which judges how many runs above or below neutral a defender is in making plays in his designated “zone”. According to these updated numbers Markakis is sitting at a -10.2 making him one of the worst right fielders in the AL. What this is saying is that Markakis has a lot of trouble making plays in his zone that an average player would make (average being -1-1). However, Markakis has made 46 outs out of his zone (OOZ) this is good enough for third in the AL and well above last year’s numbers and well on his way to catching and surpassing 2008, his best defensive year.
Still with me?
All of that boils down to this question for the fielding stats gurus: How can someone who supposedly has so much trouble making plays in his zone have so many outs out of his zone?
Defensive metrics are hard.
-On another forum I was talking in the baseball thread. The Orioles were playing the Mariners and a forum-mate had tickets to see his beloved Rays take on the Texas Rangers. The matchup between two first-place teams arguably the two best teams in the AL in Tampa drew only 6K more than the two worst-teams in the AL in Baltimore. His words: “We don’t deserve this franchise.”
Time for pregame dinner: remember follow me on Twitter for commentary and discussion – @hampden42
