Dave Cameron over at Fangraphs chimed in on the Orioles’ winter today; he is not impressed.
There’s just very little upside in any of these deals. Even in a best case scenario, Tejada and Millwood continue to be above average players, make the team good enough to fight the Rays for third place in the AL East, and then file for free agency again next year. Or, I guess, you could hope to trade them at the deadline for a prospect if they’re playing well, but then that raises the question of why the team didn’t just take the $15 million they gave those two and plow it into the draft and international free agents in the first place.
This just isn’t the off-season that I thought the Orioles had in them. This is a safe, low risk, low upside winter that doesn’t really change the fate of the franchise much at all. They got a little bit better for next year, but lost an opportunity to really help the 2011/2012 teams that could actually be quite good.
I brought this up, not to bury him; he makes good points. However, I do disagree. While the Orioles offseason has not been the headline-grabbing juggernaut that some thought it might be I feel the Orioles offseason has been fine. I think the moves we made are fine complementary moves. The key word there is complementary. These moves are made to compliment the development of our younger players, something Mr. Cameron virtually ignores in his text.
Maybe his projection don’t show him a vastly different team from last year. But he doesn’t really go into all of that. He is right in the consideration that these moves alone will have a negligible effect on the 2010, I don’t think anyone can deny that. but I fail to see how Adrian Beltre was a lock to do that much better. I have said it before and I will say it here one more time: Success in 2010 is not tied to any one or, in this case, group of moves it will pretty much rely on the progression of the yung players on this roster.
Miguel Tejada is a one-year stop gap to keep the bag warm for Josh Bell. Kevin Millwood is there to take the pressure of of Matusz, Tillman and Hernandez (if he makes the rotation). Garrett Atkins is a reclamation project who has had more success than Beltre and could easily have just a big a year with a change of scenery.
While we are on the subject, can someone please explain to me why so many people seem to be all over a guy who is considered to be one of the largest free-agent busts of all time? Honestly, I have a feeling that Garrett Atkins is more likely to bounce back than Adrian Beltre.
