Keith Law came out with his 100 top prospects list on ESPN’s website yesterday and the good news is that there are a few Orioles on the list.
The names listed are Brian Matusz (#11), Zach Britton (#25), Josh Bell (#61) and Jake Arrieta (#90).
It’s an interesting list that he’s compiled. You have to be part of ESPN’s Insider to view it; however, I copied the salient items for the Baltimore Orioles.
His thoughts on Matusz: Matusz barely qualifies for this list, falling just 5.1 innings short of the 50-inning cutoff (teammate Chris Tillman is over the line and thus no longer a rookie in 2010), but the added experience might give him a leg up on the AL Rookie of the Year race in 2010. Matusz is a true four-pitch pitcher, but unlike most pitchers of that breed, all four of his pitches project as above-average or better. Matusz sits in the low 90s and will touch 94 with his fastball, although its lack of movement limits its potential as an out pitch and I expect Matusz to end up using his fastball less often than a standard pitcher with that velocity. His best secondary pitch is an 11-5 curveball with tight rotation and good depth, and he has excellent arm speed on his lively changeup. His command has improved steadily since his sophomore year in college, and — as predicted here last year — he raced through the minors on the strength of his off-speed pitches. He’s not the prototypical No. 1 starter with a big fastball and an easy delivery, but his ability to miss left- and right-handed bats in different ways gives him a chance to lead a staff, regardless.
His thoughts on Britton: Britton is a true sinker/slider pitcher with enough velocity to work as a starter and a potential out pitch in the slider to miss bats when he’s not getting ground balls. His sinker has solid-average velocity with legitimate plus sink, and he’ll flash a four-seamer up to 94. His slider — although not as consistent — flashes plus, and he’s willing and able to backfoot it to right-handed hitters, then throwing the sinker away to get a weak grounder or just a swing and miss. His changeup improved over the course of the season to the point that it’s an average pitch or better, eliminating a major concern for sinker/slider guys — a typical weakness against opposite-side hitters. Britton’s arm works well with high hand separation and a short arm path, and he’s a good athlete with some room to fill out up top. His control remains below-average and his command of all pitches and feel for the slider need to improve, as well, but he would slot in very nicely as a No. 2 starter behind Brian Matusz, or as an outstanding No. 3 behind Matusz and Chris Tillman.
His thoughts on Bell: Bell’s 2008 ended with knee surgery, but his 2009 ended with his being traded to Baltimore, where he’s now the heir apparent at the hot corner. Bell is here because when he hits left-handed, he rakes, hitting .340/.419/.625 against right-handed pitchers in 2009, even after crossing the chasm to Double-A, where weaker hitters are exposed quickly by pitchers with better command or off-speed stuff. He has excellent bat speed from the left side, accelerating his wrists very quickly from the set position, although his swing is a little flat and might be more geared to doubles than home runs. On the negative side, he’s futile from the right side, and he’s reaching the point where the Orioles may have to consider having him give up switch-hitting if he doesn’t improve in the next year. He’s improving at third base and projects as an average glove there, with solid hands and an above-average arm. He should be able to take over in Baltimore sometime between midyear 2010 and the start of 2011 depending on how well he fares against left-handed pitching, regardless of how he does it.
His thoughts on Arrieta: Arrieta finished his second full season in pro ball in Triple-A after showing improved control at Double-A in the first half of the year. Beyond the significant improvement in his control, he remains what he was: a four-pitch guy with no plus pitch but nothing below-average. His arm path is long but he repeats it well enough to throw strikes, although his command remains fringe-average at best. He knows how to change speeds and keep hitters off-balance, which may help him play up above the average repertoire. Two scouts with whom I spoke saw Arrieta in 2009 and tabbed him a No. 4 starter, but I wouldn’t rule out him becoming a solid No. 3 with some command improvements and his feel for adding and subtracting from his fastball.
